"Even though Iran could probably only maintain a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz only for a very limited period of time, the consequences would still be dramatic. The oil price would definitely set new all-time-highs and could reach levels of up to USD 200 ... [S]ince Saudi Arabia has never exceeded the barrier of 10 mbd on a sustainable basis, we harbor doubts as to whether the country can actually produce 12.5 mbd ... The belief in a quick substitution of fossil energy carriers by alternative forms of energy seems illusory and naïve, given the current investment volumes and lip service."
