Kommentar von Richard Kerr über Peak Oil und den technologischen Fortschritt in der Ölindustrie, erschienen in Science (3. Februar 2012).
For at least 20 years, oil "peakists" have been warning of an imminent
maxing out of world oil production. Daniel Yergin,
chair of IHS Cambridge Energy Research
Associates, thinks not. Instead, Yergin says, technological innovation
driven by higher
prices will make hard-to-extract North Dakota
"tight oil," Canadian oil sands, and far-offshore deposits accessible
and profitable.
That opening of new, abundant sources will help
put off the much-feared peak until "perhaps sometime around midcentury,"
Yergin
writes in his recent book, The Quest. Less-optimistic analysts remain unconvinced. Many think it will barely offset the declining output of aging fields. Because
harder means slower, Yergin's midcentury timing of the peak remains dubious for many analysts.
Richard A. Kerr
Science 3 February 2012: Vol. 335 no. 6068 pp. 522-523
DOI: 10.1126/science.335.6068.522
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