Oil shortage: The world’s oil production has leveled off which is
causing a diesel shortage in Europe. Kjell Aleklett, a professor at
Uppsala University, says that people should drive gasoline-powered
vehicles if they want to be driving ten years from now.
Artikel von Gunnar Lindstedt, aus dem Schwedischen von Prof. Kjell Aleklett übersetzt, erschienen auf Aleklett's Energy Mix (19. März 2012). Auf ASPO Deutschland mit freundlicher Genehmigung von Prof. Kjell Aleklett veröffentlicht.
Artikel von Gunnar Lindstedt, aus dem Schwedischen von Prof. Kjell Aleklett übersetzt, erschienen auf Aleklett's Energy Mix (19. März 2012). Auf ASPO Deutschland mit freundlicher Genehmigung von Prof. Kjell Aleklett veröffentlicht.
Despite dramatic
changes in price the oil industry has not been able to increase
production. At the same time there have been large changes in how much
oil is actually available on the world market.
“Between 2005 and
2010, a period of five years, the oil exporting nations reduced their
exports from 48 million barrels per day to 44 million barrels per day.
That means that 4 million barrels per day have disappeared from the
market”, says professor Kjell Aleklett at Uppsala University. “Furthermore,
China, India and other developing nations have increased their imports
by a total of 3 million barrels per day. In other words, the oil
available to the OECD-nations has decreased by 15% in 5 years.”
As
the oil exporting nations in the Middle East keep more of their oil for
domestic consumption while Asian nations are dramatically increasing
their imports, the shortage of oil in the industrial world is becoming
ever more apparent. At the same time, oil consumption in this part
of the world has declined since the economic crisis of 2008 – people
are driving less and industry’s demand has decreased. But a sign of the
developing oil shortages is the continued high oil price.
And high
oil prices lead eventually to economic recession. The question is how
high the prices can go. If the economy stagnates it will be difficult
for the oil companies to recover expensive investments in
difficult-to-produce oil. As a consequence, investment will decline.
This
departure from the principle that increased demand leads to more
investment and greater supply has already become manifest in terms of
access to diesel fuel in Europe. “At the moment the shortage of
diesel in Europe is 30-40 million cubic metres”, says Michael Löw who is
managing director of Preem. (Preem is
the biggest oil company in Sweden, with refining capacity of more than
18 million m3 of crude oil every year. Their two refineries are among
the most modern, environmentally-friendly in Europe and the world).
The
USA exports diesel fuel to Europe and we export gasoline to the USA.
But if the Americans begin to drive more diesel vehicles then the
shortage of diesel here will become even greater. Since a large
proportion of the diesel fuel is used by trucking to transport goods
that are essential for society it may well happen that diesel for
private motor cars must be rationed in future. From a political
standpoint diesel-powered cars have been supported in Europe since they
are regarded as more environmentally friendly. That measure will now
hurt us.
“If you want to be certain that you can drive a car in
ten year’s time (in Europe) then you should drive a gasoline-powered
vehicle”, says Kjell Aleklett. “In ten years diesel fuel in Europe will probably be rationed.” The
European refinery capacity for diesel production is far too small
relative to the demand. But the oil industry nevertheless does not want
to invest in new plant since the profit margins are low and the future
outlook is uncertain.
“The (Swedish) government says that in 2030 our driving will be fossil fuel-free”, says Michael Löw. “But since it takes at least 19 years to turn over the car fleet we
should be buying electric vehicles from this point on which is not
happening. The politicians are leaving us in a vacuum – shall we close
down our activities or continue to invest?”
