Eine Masterarbeit von Lieutenant Colonel Pascal Eggen der Schweizer Armee, erschienen am U.S. Army Command and General Staff College, Fort Leavenworth, Kansas, 91 Seiten (16. Dezember 2011).
This research explores how the peaking of world oil production influences the global balance of power. On the one hand, the geological phenomenon of peaking, modeled by the Hubbert’s peak curve, gives the timeframe and the evolution of oil depletion. On the other hand, the impact of energy resources on economic and global balance is perceived differently in world politics. Idealism, realism and offensive realism lead to different societal behaviors. In this context, oil, as one of the main source of power for transportation, has a particular role to play. In this context, the relation between the peaking of oil and the global balance of power is scrutinized under the lens of system theory. Therefore, a simple model to describe the world is developed.
This research has found that the peaking of world oil production will increase the resource awareness of great powers. While oil production will decline, nations will try to preserve their high level of organization. The world politics will shift from idealism, typical of our present growing economy, to realism and offensive realism. The economic rules will move to those of a negative sum game. As a consequence, minor geopolitical players will have to align will great powers, to ensure minimal losses in oil supply. Finally, the great powers will wait until the last moment to start mitigation measures against oil depletion. Indeed, too early a transition towards new sources of energy constitutes a risk to alter their current geopolitical position.
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