Geology versus Technology
Eine Studie von Jaromir Benes et al. über ein Modell, welches versucht, den Ölpreis anhand einer Kombination aus Hubbert-Linearisierung und einem Preismechanismus abzubilden, bei dem höhere Ölpreise auch die Förderung bisher unwirtschaftlicher Lagerstätten ermöglichen. Die Interpretation ihres Modells deutet selbst unter optimistischen Gesichtspunkten auf eine permanente Verdopplung des Ölpreises im kommenden Jahrzehnt hin. Zudem weisen die Autoren darauf hin, dass technologische Errungenschaften die geologischen Grenzen der Ölproduktion nicht überwinden können. Erschienen beim Internationalen Währungsfonds, Washington (Mai 2012).
Abstract
We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions in production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade. The error bands are wide, and reflect sharply differing judgments on ultimately recoverable reserves, and on future price elasticities of oil demand and supply.
Link zur Studie von Jaromir Benes et al. "The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology" beim IWF »
Link zum Kommentar von Gail Tverberg "New IMF Working Paper Models Impact of Oil Limits on the Economy" auf Our Finite World »
