"Sorrell and others (2010) discuss several studies which conclude that world oil production is currently on a temporary and fluctuating plateau, and which forecast future decline ... [In the 'Larger Shock Scenario',] we also assume that this outright output contraction is accompanied by an annual increase in real extraction costs per barrel of 4 percent ... Annual GDP growth rates in the United States and the euro area drop by around one percentage point ... Current account deteriorations in oil importers are also much more serious, averaging 5 percentage points of GDP on average in the long term in both the United States and the euro area. The most striking aspect of this scenario is however that supply reductions of this magnitude would require a more than 200 percent increase of the oil price on impact, and an 800 percent increase over 20 years. Relative price changes of this magnitude would be unprecedented, and would almost certainly have nonlinear effects on GDP that the model is not able to capture adequately."
Ein IMF Working Paper von Michael Kumhof und Dirk Muir über verschiedene Zukunftsszenarien der Ölverknappung und dessen Auswirkungen auf die wirtschaftliche Konjunktur. Erschienen beim Internationalen Währungsfonds (Oktober 2012).
Ein IMF Working Paper von Michael Kumhof und Dirk Muir über verschiedene Zukunftsszenarien der Ölverknappung und dessen Auswirkungen auf die wirtschaftliche Konjunktur. Erschienen beim Internationalen Währungsfonds (Oktober 2012).
Link zum Paper von Michael Kumhof und Dirk Muir "Oil and the World Economy: Some Possible Futures" beim IWF »
Link zum Artikel von Brad Plumer "IMF study: Peak oil could do serious damage to the global economy" in der Washington Post »
Link zum Artikel von 'Tyler Durden' "Charting The Undoing Of Credit-Fueled Globalization" auf ZeroHedge »
Link zum Artikel von Kurt Cobb "Does the IMF believe we have a peak oil problem?" auf ResourceInsights »