"Several recent studies concluded that domestic price increases from
exports would be small. This conclusion, however, is based on
unrealistic assumptions about the size of U.S. gas supplies and the true
cost of producing shale gas. In fact, supplies are likely substantially smaller than predicted, while costs are higher ... The lesson: gas supply estimates are much more uncertain than experts and conventional wisdom assumes ... We do not dispute that the shale gas resource is large; we question
the near- to medium-term supply, the amount of shale gas that is
available on demand. The number of gas-directed drilling rigs has
plummeted in the past year because of low price and we fear that demand
may exceed supply unless this trend is reversed. All oil and gas wells display production decline rates over time. The
decline rate is simply the change in flow over time. Shale gas wells
have especially high decline rates, meaning U.S. supplies are likely
shorter-lived than many are predicting. For example, conventional gas
wells decline at annual rates of about 20% per year but the production
from shale gas wells declines at rates of at least 33% per year and
often higher ... Production from shale is a new phenomenon and prediction about future
well performance is speculative. Recent studies, however, by the U.S.
Geological Survey, the University of Texas, Louisiana State University
and other industry groups show that commercially recoverable per-well
shale gas reserves may be considerably smaller than some believe ... Approving long-term export contracts before confirming the true size of
U.S. natural gas supplies would be reckless. Policymakers should take
the time to get it right, so the rest of the country does not pay the
price for another cycle of bad guesses about the natural gas market."
Zum Artikel von Art Berman, erschienen auf The Oil Drum (15. Februar 2013) »
Zum Artikel von Art Berman, erschienen auf The Oil Drum (15. Februar 2013) »
