"U.S tight oil production from shale plays will fall more quickly than most assume. Why? High decline rates from shale reservoirs is given. The more
interesting reasons are the compounding effects of pad drilling on rig
count and poorer average well performance with time. Rig productivity has increased but average well productivity has
decreased. Every rig used in pad drilling has approximately three times
the impact on the daily production rate as a rig did before pad
drilling. At the same time, average well productivity has decreased by
about one-third. This means that production rates will fall at a much higher rate today than during previous periods of falling rig counts [...] Rig productivity--the barrels per day per rig--has increased but average
well productivity--the barrels per day per well--has decreased. In
other words, production can only be maintained by drilling an
ever-increasing number of wells [...] Average rig productivity has almost tripled since early 2012. Average
well productivity has decreased by one-third over the same period. This
means that every rig taken out of service today has more than three
times the impact on daily production as before pad drilling became
common."
Zum Artikel von Arthur Berman, erschienen auf OilPrice (26. Januar 2015) »
