U.S. SHALE BOOM MAY COME TO ABRUPT END

"U.S tight oil production from shale plays will fall more quickly than most assume. Why? High decline rates from shale reservoirs is given. The more interesting reasons are the compounding effects of pad drilling on rig count and poorer average well performance with time. Rig productivity has increased but average well productivity has decreased. Every rig used in pad drilling has approximately three times the impact on the daily production rate as a rig did before pad drilling. At the same time, average well productivity has decreased by about one-third. This means that production rates will fall at a much higher rate today than during previous periods of falling rig counts [...] Rig productivity--the barrels per day per rig--has increased but average well productivity--the barrels per day per well--has decreased. In other words, production can only be maintained by drilling an ever-increasing number of wells [...] Average rig productivity has almost tripled since early 2012. Average well productivity has decreased by one-third over the same period. This means that every rig taken out of service today has more than three times the impact on daily production as before pad drilling became common."

Zum Artikel von Arthur Berman, erschienen auf OilPrice (26. Januar 2015) »