PEAK OIL NEWS AND MESSAGE BOARDS


DIE PRALINENBOX IST GEPLÜNDERT

"Mitte der 60er wurde am meisten Erdöl entdeckt. Seitdem geht es bergab. Gleichzeitig ist aber die Produktion gestiegen. Im Jahr 1980 wurde erstmals mehr Erdöl gefördert als neu gefunden wurde. Und seit 2005 ist die Fördermenge nahezu konstant. Aktuell werden täglich weltweit über 90 Millionen Fass Erdöl verbraucht, das entspricht 45 Supertankern. Möglicherweise haben wir schon letztes Jahr das Fördermaximum erreicht, den sogenannten Peak Oil. Mit tiefgreifenden Folgen. Denn auch bei einem Rückgang von nur zwei Prozent produzieren wir in 35 Jahren nur noch die Hälfte der aktuellen Fördermenge ... Die Förderung wird teurer, sie braucht mehr Energie und hat immer schlimmere Umweltauswirkungen. Um es bildhaft auszudrücken: Die Pralinenbox ist geplündert, jetzt sind noch die Dinge übrig, die keiner mag ... Ich sehe die Bemühungen, weniger CO2 ausstoßen, als klares Zugeständnis zu Peak Oil. Wir müssen daher überlegen, wie wir weg kommen vom ständigen Wachstumszwang, hin zu einer möglichst nachhaltigen Lebensweise."

Zur Online-Version des Interviews mit Alex Beaurieux, geführt von Felix Werdermann, erschienen in Der Freitag (25. Juni 2014) »

Zur PDF-Version des Interviews mit Alex Beaurieux, geführt von Felix Werdermann, erschienen in Der Freitag (12. Juni 2014) »

Zum unveröffentlichten Interview mit Alex Beaurieux in voller Länge, geführt von Felix Werdermann »

PENTAGON PREPARING FOR MASS CIVIL BREAKDOWN

"One war-game, said Price, involved environmental activists protesting pollution from a coal-fired plant near Missouri, some of whom were members of the well-known environmental NGO Sierra Club. Participants were tasked to 'identify those who were 'problem-solvers' and those who were 'problem-causers,' and the rest of the population whom would be the target of the information operations to move their Center of Gravity toward that set of viewpoints and values which was the 'desired end-state' of the military's strategy'. Such war-games are consistent with a raft of Pentagon planning documents which suggest that National Security Agency (NSA) mass surveillance is partially motivated to prepare for the destabilising impact of coming environmental, energy and economic shocks."

Zum Artikel von Dr. Nafeez Ahmed, erschienen in The Guardian (12. Juni 2014) »

PRÄSIDENT SISI: ÄGYPTER SOLLEN RAD FAHREN

"Ägyptens neuer Präsident Abdel Fattah al-Sisi hat die Bevölkerung aufgerufen, Treibstoff zu sparen und Wege zu Fuß oder per Fahrrad zu erledigen. In einer Rede an einer Militärakademie in Kairo erklärte er, der Treibstoff für eine 20-Kilometer-Fahrt koste den Fahrer vier ägyptische Pfund (41 Cent), den Staat aber acht Pfund."

Zur gesamten Kurzmeldung, erschienen in derStandard (13. Juni 2014) »

BENEATH THE UKRAINE CRISIS: SHALE GAS

"On Nov. 5, 2013 (just a few weeks before the Maidan demonstrations began in Kiev), Chevron signed a 50-year agreement with the Ukrainian government to develop oil and gas in western Ukraine ... The United States offered its diplomatic support, with Geoffrey Pyatt, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, saying, “I’m very determined to cooperate with the Ukrainian government in strengthening Ukraine’s energy independence.” U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Europe Victoria Nuland spoke at an international business conference sponsored by Chevron on Dec. 13, 2013, after just returning from Kiev where she handed out cookies and sandwiches to demonstrators on the Maidan. In her speech, she urged Ukraine to sign a new deal with the IMF ... This is important for putting Ukraine “on the path to strengthening the sort of stable and predictable business environment that investors require,” she said. Although stability and predictability are not exactly the words that people would associate with Ukraine these days, Western energy companies have continued to maneuver for corporate rights over Ukraine’s shale gas deposits. Last fall, officials were in negotiations with an ExxonMobil-led consortium to explore for hydrocarbons off Ukraine’s western Black Sea coast ... Royal Dutch Shell is also engaged in the country, having signed an agreement last year with the government of Yanukovych to explore a shale formation in eastern Ukraine. When it comes to Crimea, numerous oil companies including Chevron, Shell, ExxonMobil, Repsol and even Petrochina have shown interest in developing its offshore energy assets. Believing that Crimea’s onshore and offshore fields will live up to expectations, these companies have greatly expanded their exploration of the Black Sea off the Crimean peninsula. Some analysts believe that one of Vladimir Putin’s motivations for annexing Crimea was to ensure that Gazprom will control Crimean offshore energy assets – in addition to ensuring the continued use of Crimea as host to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet ... But with their disproportionate influence over Ukraine’s future, it should be kept in mind that the number one responsibility of any corporation is to increase profit margins for its shareholders, not necessarily to promote the democracy or sovereignty of the countries they are operating in." 

Zum Artikel von Nat Parry, erschienen auf Consortiumnews (24. April 2014) »

Zum Vortrag von Hans Hutta (ICM Petroleum Management) "Is the Black Sea the Next North Sea?" auf der IENE Conference, Thessaloniki (30.-31. Mai 2012) »

Zum Vortrag von Alex Beaurieux "Die Ukraine auf dem geopolitischen Schachbrett einer Welt nach Peak Oil" im Rahmen der Veranstaltung "Ukraine im Umbruch" beim Schülerrat Freiburg e.V., Albert-Ludwigs Universität Freiburg (2. Juni 2014) »

Zum Interview mit Dr. Daniele Ganser, Stephen Lendman und William Engdahl "NATO's 'Gladio' Army in Ukraine" in der Sendung "The Truthseeker" auf RT (14. Juni 2014) » 

THE CONNECTION BETWEEN OIL PRICES, DEBT LEVELS, AND INTEREST RATES

"The peak in oil prices took place in July 2008. When we look at US mortgage amounts outstanding, we find that home mortgage debt hit a peak on March 31, 2008 ... When we look at consumer credit outstanding, we find that consumer credit outstanding hit a maximum on July 31, 2008 ... If oil prices spike, clearly discretionary income falls ... If interest rates spike, suddenly goods that are bought with credit become more expensive ... The primary approach to keeping interest rates low has been Quantitative Easing (QE). US QE was begun in late 2008 and has been kept in place since ... The money from QE also helps encourage investment in marginal enterprises, such as in shale gas drilling ... While we hear much about the growth in oil from shale formations in the US, this is mostly acting to offset falling production elsewhere ... It is this lack of growth in oil supply together with the high price of oil that is holding back world economic growth. As stated previously, very low interest rates are needed to even maintain the level of economic growth we have now ... In a growing economy, it is possible to repay debt with interest. But once an economy flattens, it is much harder to repay debt ... The problem we have now is that a rising supply of cheap oil is no longer possible. Most of the cheap-to-extract oil is already gone. Instead, the cost of extraction keeps rising, but wages are not going up enough for people to afford the high cost of extracting oil (even with super-low interest rates). The unfortunate outcome is that oil prices are now too low for many producers ... Because oil prices are too low for companies doing the extraction, we really need higher oil prices. But if oil prices are higher, they will put the world back into recession. Interest rates are already very low–it is not possible to lower them further to offset higher oil costs. We are reaching the edge of how much central banks can do to hold economies together ... As we have seen, rising interest rates will bring an end to our current equilibrium, by raising costs in many ways, without raising salaries ... A rise in the cost of extraction of oil, if it isn’t accompanied by high oil prices, will also put an end to our equilibrium, because oil producers will stop drilling the number of wells needed to keep production up.  If oil prices rise, this will tend to put the economy into recession, leading to job loss and debt defaults."

Zum Artikel von Gail Tverberg, erschienen auf Our Finite World (21. Mai 2014) »

IEA WORLD ENERGY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

"More than 80% of the cumulative $17.5 trillion in upstream oil and gas spending is required to compensate for decline at existing oil and gas fields ... Gradual depletion of the most accessible reserves forces companies to move to develop more challenging fields; although offset in part by technology learning, this puts pressure on upstream costs and underpins an oil price that rises to reach $128/barrel in real terms by 2035 ... In the case of tight oil, the way that costs are projected to evolve differs inside and outside the United States. In the United States, on the basis of the current estimates of total recoverable resources, high production rates mean resources are rapidly depleted, with a corresponding rise in costs per barrel as operators move out of the sweet-spots to areas where the recovery per well is lower. This explains the peak and then the subsequent decline in US tight oil production after 2025 in our projections. In the rest of the world, only a low level of tight oil production is expected (compared to the resources)."