Kommentar von Christopher Helman, erschienen in Forbes (6. März 2012).
For the past couple of years executives from French oil giant Total have espoused a belief that the world is pretty close to a peak in oil supply. Today in a speech at the CERAWeek energy conference in Houston, Yves-Louis Darricarrere, president of the company’s oil and gas exploration division, said, “We think it will be difficult to produce more than 95 to 97 million barrels per day in the foreseeable future.”
Thus, says Darricarrere, oil’s share of the global energy supply will fall, with the slack to be picked up mostly by natural gas, which he says will increase in supply from 320 billion cubic feet now to 450 billion cf per day by 2030.
He admits that his view seems “paradoxical” when considering the amazing growth of supplies from shale fields; further, he says that the 95-97 million number excludes potential growth from biofuels and the manufacture of liquid fuels from coal. Still, he says, by 2030, “25 to 45 million bpd will need to be supplied from fields that are not online today.” That’s akin to the creation of two new Saudi Arabias.
