This paper
deals with the financial and business risks related to a peak in oil
production. In addition, the risks of an energy system transition are
also discussed.
Paper von Dean Fantazzini (Moscow School of Economics, Moscow State University,
Moscow, Russia), Mikael Höök (Uppsala University, Global Energy Systems,
Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala, Sweden) und André
Angelantoni (Post-Peak Living, San Francisco, CA) über Peak Oil, physikalische Grenzen in der Ölproduktion, den Zusammenhang zur wirtschaftlichen Konjunktur und die zwingende Notwendigkeit, sich auf künftige Engpässe im Angebot von Erdöl vorzubereiten. Erschienen in Energy Policy, vol. 39 , pp. 7865-7873 (Dezember
2011).
Abstract
The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other locations difficult to reach. Moreover, to obtain the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on producing ever-increasing quantities of oil are highlighted, as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade. The economics of oil supply and demand are also briefly discussed, showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short to medium term. Also, an alarm bell for economic recessions is raised when energy takes a disproportionate amount of total consumer expenditures. In this context, risk mitigation practices in government and business are called for. As for the former, early education of the citizenry about the risk of economic contraction is a prudent policy to minimize potential future social discord. As for the latter, all business operations should be examined with the aim of building in resilience and preparing for a scenario in which capital and energy are much more expensive than in the business-as-usual one.
The Deepwater Horizon incident demonstrated that most of the oil left is deep offshore or in other locations difficult to reach. Moreover, to obtain the oil remaining in currently producing reservoirs requires additional equipment and technology that comes at a higher price in both capital and energy. In this regard, the physical limitations on producing ever-increasing quantities of oil are highlighted, as well as the possibility of the peak of production occurring this decade. The economics of oil supply and demand are also briefly discussed, showing why the available supply is basically fixed in the short to medium term. Also, an alarm bell for economic recessions is raised when energy takes a disproportionate amount of total consumer expenditures. In this context, risk mitigation practices in government and business are called for. As for the former, early education of the citizenry about the risk of economic contraction is a prudent policy to minimize potential future social discord. As for the latter, all business operations should be examined with the aim of building in resilience and preparing for a scenario in which capital and energy are much more expensive than in the business-as-usual one.
