"There was virtually no growth before 1750, and thus there is no
guarantee that growth will continue indefinitely. Rather, the paper
suggests that the rapid progress made over the past 250 years could well
turn out to be a unique episode in human history ... Even if innovation were to continue into the future at the rate of the
two decades before 2007, the U.S. faces six headwinds that are in the
process of dragging long-term growth to half or less of the 1.9 percent
annual rate experienced between 1860 and 2007. These include
demography, education, inequality, globalization, energy/environment,
and the overhang of consumer and government debt. A provocative
“exercise in subtraction” suggests that future growth in consumption per
capita for the bottom 99 percent of the income distribution could fall
below 0.5 percent per year for an extended period of decades."
Eine Studie von Robert J. Gordon über limitierende Faktoren des künftigen Wachstums des Pro-Kopf-Bruttonationaleinkommens in den USA. Erschienen beim National Bureau of Economic Research (August 2012).
