"In the long term, reserves depletion remains very high with totally inadequate reserves replacements regularly obscured by resorting to claiming “resources” as reserves. The industry has moved into a higher cost paradigm with very limited growth in conventional oil and condensate supplies, accelerated “proven” reserves depletion, and high levels of violence and conflicts around the world’s major basins of low-cost oil production ... The plateau itself remains a reality and unfortunately its duration is still unlikely to extend beyond the end of this decade ... The prospect of a severe oil price drop can only happen as the outcome of another economic collapse. On the other hand, an upward spike in oil prices is far more credible given the military tensions across the world that could disrupt oil supplies and the limited elasticity in supplies. Dysfunctional governments and failed states are now a pervasive syndrome across the world. There is little evidence that the collective global leadership is able to contain or to stabilize these many crises. My base oil price forecast in 2012 dollars still ranges between $105 and $120/barrel Brent with a volatility floor of $ 95/barrel and more probable upward spiking to $140/barrel within 2016/2017."

Zum Interview mit Dr. Sadad Ibrahim Al-Husseini, erschienen auf ASPO USA (20. Januar 2014) »