"Oil production, net of processing gains, is projected to rise from 84  mb/d in 2011 to  97  mb/d  in  2035,  the  increase  coming  entirely  from  natural  gas  liquids  and unconventional  sources.  Output  of  crude  oil  (excluding  light  tight  oil)  fluctuates between 65 mb/d and 69 mb/d, never quite reaching the historic peak of 70 mb/d in 2008 and falling by 3 mb/d between 2011 and 2035 ... The need to add new capacity is much bigger than the projected increase in output, because of the need to compensate for the decline in production at existing oilfields as they pass their peak and flow-rates begin to drop. Crude oil output from those fields that were in production in 2011 falls by close to two-thirds, to only 26 mb/d by 2035. Thus, the projected production of 65 mb/d in 2035 requires almost 40 mb/d of new capacity to be added over the projection period ... Observed decline rates - the average annual rate of change in production for fields that have passed their peak - are set to rise over the projection period, as output shifts to smaller fields and deepwater."

Das neuste "Standardwerk". Erschienen bei der International Energy Agency (12. November 2012).