"World oil production will peak in 2004 and begin an irreversible decline thereafter. At the conference ... Dr. M. King Hubbert, the late geophysicist who became a world authority on the estimation of energy resources, predicted, in 1956, that U.S. oil production would peak in 1970 and decline from there. Although initially scoffed at, Hubbert’s prediction was within one year of the actual peak ... Hubbert used the bell curve approach because Hubbert had found given oil fields historically followed this trend regardless of size. Neither fixing the price of oil nor changing price of oil seemed to affect the bell curve depletion rate ... You have to discover oil before you can produce it and currently a lag time of about 11 years exists between these two operations ... Some of the economic markers of impending oil supply problems are already beginning to manifest slowdownAs oil production begins to decrease, the production system is “at capacity” and queuing theory predicts a noisy system, i.e., seemingly inexplicable price swings, and other chaotic behavior in the system ... Eventually fuel rationing will occur either by price or by inconvenience (i.e., unavailability). Under either of these rationing schemes, the military will be limited in their allotment of oil ... because of the near term production peak, time is no longer available for research and development to impact the problem ... What can be done should be done ... For DOD where liquid fuels are most in demand, coal liquids may be the only near term solution to that shortage. The impending shortage is already a serious and immediate problem and the longer it is ignored, the more difficult the solution will be. As a conclusion ... action [is] to be taken now."

Zur Zusammenfassung des Workshops vom U.S. Department of Defense, gehalten an der National Defense University (17. Dezember 2002) »

Anmerkung: An dieser Stelle sollte bemerkt werden, dass jener erste Workshop an der National Defense University über die Versorgungslage nicht-erneuerbarer Energien für die US-Streitkräfte nur Monate vor dem zweiten Golfkrieg stattfand, und darin Peak Oil ein zentrales und folgenschweres Thema darstellte.