"The greatest problem currently facing the human race is our inability to understand the effects of exponential growth and consumption rates. If a natural resource is being consumed at a steady, fixed, non-zero growth rate each year, this is not a linear, but an exponential consumption. Eventually, all non-renewable resources, including all fossil fuel energy sources, will exhibit this behavior over time as a growing population at a steady rate requires a steady, non-zero growth in energy resources. Exponential growth from a steady non-zero rate of use also can be illustrated alarmingly by the fact of “doubling time.” Simply put, if the percentage rate of annual growth rate is divided into 70, then the number of years to double the demand for a resource is obtained. At a growth rate of 2% for oil energy use, oil usage would double every 35 years. That means we would have to discover during each 35-year period enough oil to equal all the oil consumed in the entire previous history of mankind. At current growth rates for oil (about 2.5% per year global average) we have about a 28-year doubling time. That means that by 2030 we will have to discover 1 trillion new barrels of oil just to keep up with the steady demand. For the last 10 years, finding rates have averaged about 10 billion barrels per year. Thus, by 2030 we will be about 700 billion barrels short of what we need. The problem will continue to worsen every 28-year period after that ... Hubbert type analyses for world oil depletion is the correct way to approach the question of a future oil depletion crisis ... The general answer to an oil production peak falling somewhere around 2010 seems to be a reasonable consensus given current data ... Input data and the calculations should be checked and corrected constantly."

Zur Zusammenfassung des Workshops vom U.S. Department of Defense, gehalten an der National Defense University (17. Dezember 2002) »

Anmerkung: An dieser Stelle sollte bemerkt werden, dass jener erste Workshop an der National Defense University über die Versorgungslage nicht-erneuerbarer Energien für die US-Streitkräfte nur Monate vor dem zweiten Golfkrieg stattfand, und darin der Peak Oil ein zentrales und folgenschweres Thema darstellte.