CATASTROPHIC SHOCKS IN COMPLEX SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS — A PANDEMIC PERSPECTIVE

"To make the systems we depend upon more resilient ideally we would want more redundancy within critical systems and weaker coupling between them. Localization and de-complexification of basic needs (food, water, waste etc) would provide some societal resilience if systems resilience was lost. We would have more buffering at all levels, that is, larger inventories throughout society. All this is the very opposite of the direction of economic forces. The reason we have such tight inventories, tight coupling, and concentration in critical infrastructure is they bring efficiency and competitive advantage. Further, in a time of global economic stress there is a drive towards further economic efficiency ... In general we are locked into socioeconomic processes that are increasing complexity-derived vulnerability. Increasing vulnerability coupled with increasing hazard mean that the risk of a major socio-economic collapse is rising ... Further, because of the possibility that a permanent state shift could occur, planning needs to consider how to deal with non-reversion to pre-shock conditions."

Zur Studie von David Korowicz, erschienen bei feasta (19 Juli 2013) »