An dieser
Stelle möchten wir nun unseren Lesern regelmäßig und exklusiv auf ASPO
Deutschland ausgesuchte Publikationen von ASPO-Gründer Dr. Colin J.
Campbell vorstellen, welche er uns dafür freundlicherweise zur Verfügung
gestellt hat. Die vollständige Liste der von uns gehosteten
Veröffentlichungen findet sich unter Publikationen in der oberen Menüleiste.
Anmerkung: Es sei an dieser Stelle bemerkt, dass dieses White Paper von Dr. Colin Campbell im August 2010 verfasst wurde. Er bittet uns nun zu bemerkten, dass der damalige Ölpreis bei 80 Dollar lag - im Gegensatz zu 110 Dollar aktuell - was effektiv einen Inflationsmarker der US-Währung darstellt, welche seitdem erheblich an Kaufkraft verloren hat. Weiterhin sei bemerkt, dass Dr. Campbell damals den Peak von regulärem, konventionellem Rohöl auf das Jahr 2008 festsetzte. Hohe Ölpreise haben seitdem einen Run auf unkonventionelle Ölquellen erzeugt, welche teurer auszubeuten sind und einen geringeren Energy Return on Energy Invested [EROEI] besitzen, da ein großer Energieanteil für die Extraktion benötigt wird. Dr. Campbells aktuelle Analyse legt den Peak Oil [All Liquids] dieses Jahr 2013 auf 85,142 Millionen Fass pro Tag [MBPD] fest, gefolgt von einem Förderabfall auf 82 MBPD bis 2020, 39 MBPD bis 2050 and 12 MBPD im Jahr 2100.
"The [American] victory in the Second World War prompted rapid expansion, largely achieved by impoverishing the Third World with dollar debt, but it may now be following the classic historical pattern as it heads into decline, despite military efforts to preserve its power ... The economic expansion over the past Century was however built on cheap energy from coal, followed by oil and gas, which proved a much more effective economic stimulus than farm-workers or slaves ... A new situation now unfolds, given that the peak of oil production was passed in 2008, with the peak of gas being expected to follow around 2015. This marks the Dawn of the Second Half of the Age of Oil ... With the current production decline rate, the 'slave' population will fall to about 2 trillion [compared to 32 trillion in 2010] by the end of the Century, which is still close to what it was in 1950. It may imply that the economy has to shrink to about what it was then. It probably implies that the population has to decline in parallel as shown in the graph, assuming a decline in per capita consumption of 1.5% a year ... No doubt many economists, whose experience has been built on the First Half of the Oil Age, assume that Market Forces and Man’s Ingenuity will conquer all to deliver eternal economic growth and expansion. But in reality an entirely new world opens ... The change is of unparalleled magnitude, given that the world’s population has grown ten-fold on the back of the cheap energy that became available during the First Half of the Age of Oil. There may well be brief epochs of Inflation as Governments print excessive amounts of currency to try to stimulate a return to past prosperity, but the overall system will be one of Deflation ... One implication might be that oil prices will not again go through the roof as shortages appear, because people will simply be buying less, having lost much of their income and savings. This may in turn mean that the expensive oils from deepwater fields and tarsands may not be developed as quickly as previously thought, as they themselves have a low net energy yield. The recent BP accident in the Gulf of Mexico occurred in operations testing technology to the limit. It poses the question : who would be drilling in 5000 feet of water to a depth of 18 000 feet to tap no more than a modest field if there were anywhere else easier left? ... It is important to recognise that debt and money supply have been the principal drivers of past expansion in the past, but have now again overreached a justifiable limit set by underlying energy supply ... The picture of a forthcoming crash of unparalleled magnitude is welcome to no one, so there are many pressures to ignore the underlying forces, but at the end of the day it is well to remember that Nature, responsible for the underlying depletion of finite energy resources, does not lie."Zum White Paper von Dr. Colin Campbell, erschienen auf ASPO Deutschland (18. August 2010) »
Anmerkung: Es sei an dieser Stelle bemerkt, dass dieses White Paper von Dr. Colin Campbell im August 2010 verfasst wurde. Er bittet uns nun zu bemerkten, dass der damalige Ölpreis bei 80 Dollar lag - im Gegensatz zu 110 Dollar aktuell - was effektiv einen Inflationsmarker der US-Währung darstellt, welche seitdem erheblich an Kaufkraft verloren hat. Weiterhin sei bemerkt, dass Dr. Campbell damals den Peak von regulärem, konventionellem Rohöl auf das Jahr 2008 festsetzte. Hohe Ölpreise haben seitdem einen Run auf unkonventionelle Ölquellen erzeugt, welche teurer auszubeuten sind und einen geringeren Energy Return on Energy Invested [EROEI] besitzen, da ein großer Energieanteil für die Extraktion benötigt wird. Dr. Campbells aktuelle Analyse legt den Peak Oil [All Liquids] dieses Jahr 2013 auf 85,142 Millionen Fass pro Tag [MBPD] fest, gefolgt von einem Förderabfall auf 82 MBPD bis 2020, 39 MBPD bis 2050 and 12 MBPD im Jahr 2100.
