"In the words of Napoleon, a graph is worth a thousand words ... For the economist, 1000 plus 1 gives 1001, but in the uncertain world of reserve reporting with an accuracy of less than 10%, 1000 plus 1 gives 1000 ... We are close to the peak or plateau of many essential supplies. The great changes mean that we face the end of the world we have known ... What goes up must come down ... It is necessary to find oil before it can be produced. The shifted discovery matches production and forecast future production ... The potential for the Shale Plays is based on the assumption that the oil and gas extend throughout the source-rock basin. But in reality only a small proportion of the well locations are economic. In reality, the accumulations are in stratigraphic traps having adequate porosity and permeability and the number and quality of the fractures ... The distribution is not random, but controlled by geology. The volume produced initially is good compared with conventional wells, but the decline rate is very high reaching 50% in the first year ... The Bakken does not produce from the source-rock but from a porous carbonate interval within the source-rock, and is therefore to be considered as a conventional stratigraphic trap. It is for that reason that Shale Oil has become Light Tight Oil, increasing the confusion ... OPEC Reserves are said to be Proved, but they are without audit. In fact, they are essentially political reserves with an addition of 300 Gb in the quota wars of 1986-1989 ... The peak of the world remaining 2P reserves was in 1980 ... Figure 25 illustrates the divergence between geologists, who know that the discovery curve, shown in green, has been in decline since 1980, and the economists who have access only to the brown curve which has grown for fifty years due to political factors and changing definitions. The Extra-Heavy oil reserves of Athabaska in Canada and the Orinoco in Venezuela must be added separately, the resource having been known (and produced) for many years. The profile of Non Conventional Reserves is of little significance because it is size of the tap, which is both costly and slow to install, that matters more than the size of resource itself ... Public production data are unreliable and subject to obscure definitions ... The game of football has its rules, and anyone offending them is given a red card by the referee, but in the world of oil there is no agreement on definitions, rules, referees or red cards." 

Zur aktualisierten Studie von Jean Laherrère, übersetzt durch Dr. Colin Campbell, präsentiert auf der Sommerakademie der Grünen Partei Frankreichs in Marseille (22. August 2013) »

Zur ursprünglichen Studie von Jean Laherrère "Pic du pétrole et autres pics", präsentiert auf der Sommerakademie der Grünen Partei Frankreichs in Toulouse (26. August 2004) »

Zum Artikel von Prof. Ugo Bardi "Who said that peak oil models were wrong?" auf Cassandra's Legacy (25. August 2013) »

Jean Laherrère // ASPO France