"I’ve been starting my speeches for some time now by saying: “I am the most optimistic I have been in almost thirty years in the market—if only because things can’t get any worse.” Is that true, and more importantly, how do we get a fundamental change away from this extend-and-pretend which prevails not only in Europe but also the world? History tells us that we only get real changes as a result of war, famine, social riots or collapsing stock markets. None of these is an issue for most of the world—at least not yet—but on the other hand we have never had less growth, worse demographics, or higher unemployment since WWII. This is a true paradox that somehow needs to be resolved, and quickly if we are to avoid wasting an entire generation of European youth ... We have simply disconnected the market and the price of money. This comes after Draghi’s longer-term refinancing operation, a cheap
funding for banks with little or no collateral, or the closest thing to
quantitative easing you can have without calling it quantitative easing. This is a problem because corporations that need to finance long-term
projects, like building a power station over six to eight years, need a
price for the credit they require throughout the building period. Right
now they have an almost flat yield curve from zero to 30 years, which
would be fine if it were realistic. But the problem is that one day in
the “distant future” when the market normalises, interest rates should
revert to their normal price, which is roughly inflation plus a risk
premium ... A move from less than one percent to seven percent would administer an
ugly shock to companies. We have created a negative vicious circle in
which not only investors, but also companies are depending on low
interest rates forever. They have priced their future earnings and costs
on government support prices rather than on realistic market prices ... We have never been in a more dysfunctional state at the corporate, political and individual level in history ... Getting to the bottom is good in one sense: the only way is up."
Zum Artikel von Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist & Chief Information Officer bei Saxo Bank, erschienen auf TradingFloor (21. Oktober 2013) »
Anmerkung: Berücksichtigt man jedoch die Konsequenzen des Peak Oils, stellt sich die Frage - nicht ob, sondern - wie "tief" unser aktueller Lebensstandard, der auf permanentem Wachstum dank 22 Milliarden versteckter "Erdölsklaven" beruht, noch effektiv fallen wird. Eine Frage, die sich jeder Leser anhand der Informationen auf ASPO Deutschand selbst versuchen kann zu beantworten. Höchste Zeit, sich ernsthafte Gedanken über einen Fallschirm zu machen.
Zum Artikel von Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist & Chief Information Officer bei Saxo Bank, erschienen auf TradingFloor (21. Oktober 2013) »
Anmerkung: Berücksichtigt man jedoch die Konsequenzen des Peak Oils, stellt sich die Frage - nicht ob, sondern - wie "tief" unser aktueller Lebensstandard, der auf permanentem Wachstum dank 22 Milliarden versteckter "Erdölsklaven" beruht, noch effektiv fallen wird. Eine Frage, die sich jeder Leser anhand der Informationen auf ASPO Deutschand selbst versuchen kann zu beantworten. Höchste Zeit, sich ernsthafte Gedanken über einen Fallschirm zu machen.
